The seventh version of the Rogue Invitational is fast approaching. If you haven’t seen the previous article diving into the programming, check that out HERE.
This article looks at the most likely top 12 finishers on the men’s side this year, culminating in a comparison against the commonalities in Rogue’s programming over the last three years for each athlete, and then an evaluation of all of them against each other.
Austin Hatfield
Rogue Status: Rookie
Expectations: He’s in the top tier of men, but that doesn’t guarantee much currently, because that tier is as full as it’s ever been in this sport.
2025 Season: Hatfield has competed in six individual competitions already this calendar year, and he’s proven the ability to win them (1st at both Mayhem classic and WFP Tour Stop 1). However, of late, the results have not been as good. In his two most recent appearances he’s been 5th (CrossFit Games) and 9th (WFP Tour Stop 2). ‘
Strengths: He’s exceptional at squats, especially in the front rack (thrusters, front squats, squat clean), handstand pushups (seemingly the harder variation the better for him), and upper body pulling gymnastics. Lastly, although he may not be the best at them, he also often filters towards the top in running workouts.
He has 21 1st or 2nd place workout finishes in his short career:
- 13 of them had front rack position weightlifting movements
- 10 of them had upper body pulling gymnastics
- 4 of them had handstand push ups
- 3 of them had running
Weaknesses: Power output on machines mostly.
His worst finishes this year have been on:
- Echo bike / sled at WFP 1
- Row, toes to bar, sled at WZA Miami
- Ski, T2B, DL, GHD*, Echo bike at WFP 2
- *yes his GHD broke, but he was last in his heat already with only echo bike remaining
Chandler Smith
Rogue Status: Seventh appearance (5th 2019, 4th 2020 online, 8th 2021, 2nd 2022, 13th 2023, 12th 2024)
Expectations: Chandler is one of only two men (along with Pat Vellner) who has been at every Rogue Invitational. The first four editions he was amongst the best there on a regular basis with all top 8 finishes, three of which were in the top 5, and his lone podium finish came as the runner-up to Justin Medeiros in 2022. He has still had decent showing in the last two seasons, but not like those first four.
The men’s field is pretty dense within the top 10 at most major competitions now, and Chandler has not recently been able to fight his way to any top 10 finishes, with his most recent one being a 7th place finish at the CrossFit Games in 2023.
Chander is living in London this fall, which is a big plus for him relative to nearly all of the perceived top 10 in the world right now who are traveling internationally for this competition. He has also taken to social media recently suggesting he is in very good fighting shape, as fast and strong as he’s ever been, two things which both will be quite helpful at Rogue.
I think he’s in line for a better finish than he’s had in the past two years at Rogue, and that with a couple breaks going his way even something as high as a 7th or 8th place finish is not out of the question.
2025 Season: It’s been WFP all the way for Chandler this here. He’s placed 14th and 15th at their two tour stops, and physically should be coming into Rogue feeling really good. While many athletes have competed more than usual this year, Chandler has not; and I at least view that as an asset when assessing his potential at Rogue.
Strengths: Running, squatting, deadlifting, unconventional pulling (log muscle up, horizontal pegboard), burpees, snatching, ghd sit ups
Last year Chandler had four event finishes between 6th and 8th, they came on the first three workouts, and also the Gondola. The key components of those workouts were running, squat snatches, wall facing handstand pushups and back squats, and then of course the horizontal peg board. In short, Chandler is good at some of the things which Rogue regularly tests for that some competitions do not (that helps explain his success there over the years).
The year before that he had three top 5 finishes, one of which was an event win on the max deadlift. The other two came once again on the first two events of the weekend, a running dominant workout, and the log muscle up back squat combination.
Weaknesses: Cleans and Front squats (the front rack position perhaps), handstand walking
Chandler has had three finishes in the bottom five athletes each of the past two years at Rogue as well. Last year they came on the two workouts with the CYR bell, and on the final, which was all sandbag cleans. The year before that, they came on the Duel III, which included the sandbag into teeter lifts, and also on Big Cat (handstand walking) and the Cleanup (double unders plus variations of clean and jerks). Perhaps coincidentally, but, both year two of those were the last two workouts of the competition.
Colten Mertens
Rogue Status: Third appearance (11th 2019, 9th 2020 online)
Expectations: Colten is knocking on the top 10 world wide amongst men, but based on results, 10th is the absolute highest he could be ranked currently; however, that doesn’t mean he can’t beat one or two of those top 9 guys at Rogue.
2025 Season: After winning the Open, and finishing second to Hatfield at Mayhem Classic, Mertens has settled into that 9th-12th range we expect (9th at WFP 1, 12th at the CrossFit Games, 11th at WFP 2).
Strengths: Squats, burpees, upper body pulling, handstand anything, deadlifts
Colten has 31 career event wins, and 51 finishes of 3rd or better. 20 of the 31 wins involved squatting, 31 of the 52 top three finishes involved squatting. Either way, a third of his career best finishes are a result of him being the best squatter this sport has ever seen.
Additionally:
- 17 of his wins had upper body pulling movements
- 14 of his 51 top 3 finishes had handstand push up or walking variations
- 5 of his wins and 9 of his top 3 finishes had burpees
Weaknesses: Running, certain odd object workouts, and then power output on machines and ghd sit ups.
His worst finishes this year have been on:
- The double under crossover event at the Games (his jump rope broke)
- Albany grip test, which had two strengths (deadlifting and hs walking), but the running left him behind
- WFP Tour Stop 1, workout 2 with sandbag cleans, ghds, and handstand walking
- Going Dark at the Games with 100 cals of echo bike that even the 30 deficit hspus couldn’t save him from
- WFP Tour Stop 2, workout 3 with ski, toes to bar, deadlifts, ghds, and echo bike
Guilherme Malheiros
Rogue Status: Third appearance (5th 2021, 7th 2024)
Expectations: Generally speaking, Gui would be considered outside of the top 10 fittest men in the world… but not at Rogue. At Rogue, he must be factored into the top 10.
2025 Season: He stopped the Open halfway through, but has had 4 live solo competitions already this year: 6th at Mayhem Classic, 3rd at Torian Pro, 12th at WFP 1, and 16th at WFP 2
Strengths: Max lifts, upper body pulling, handstand walking and push ups, barbell cycling, fast twitch muscle fiber workouts
Gui has 26 career event wins, 14 additional second place finishes, and 7 thirds. Of those 47 top three finishes:
- Only 8 of those come on max lifts or max complexes
- 17 others come on high volume weightlifting cycling workouts
- 14 of them involved upper body pulling
- 7 are sprint / power output specific and are not max lifts
- 6 involved handstand push ups or handstand walking
Weaknesses: Running, longer time domains.
His worst finishes this year have been on:
- WFP Tour Stop 1, workout 1 with a lot of running that he could not cover up with the ring muscle ups and snatching
- WFP Tour Stop 1, workout 3 with high volume upper body pulling gymnastics and front squats (surprisingly bad considering the movements, but the time domain was too long for him once again)
His worst Rogue finishes:
- 20th (last) on the opening workout with running and sandbag work last year
- 19th (last, there was 1 WD by this point in the competition) on a workout with ski cals, med ball GHDs, and hill running
*his next worst finish on any workout at Rogue is a 12th on “Tight Rope” from 2024… so yeah, he’s a beast with Rogue’s style of programming.
James Sprague
Rogue Status: Second Appearance (11th 2024)
Expectations: In my opinion, James is the most fit man in the sport currently. He has shown the highest rate of consistency since the 2024 semifinals, with one notable exception, his 11th place finish at Rogue last year as a Rogue rookie.
2025 Season: James opened the year by winning WZA in Miami, had a respectable online season taking 18th in the Open and 6th in the online Semis. He was 4th at Mayhem Classic, 2nd at both WFP Stops, and 3rd at the CrossFit Games. 4 for 4 on podiums at serious competitions, and 3 for 3 against the toughest competition that exists in this sport.
Strengths: Basically anything monostructurally focused is not just a strength, but a lethal weapon for him in competition. As far as non monostructural movements go, he’s very good at rope climbs, handstand walking, and lunging.
James has 17 career event wins; running, rowing, biking, swimming, jump rope variations, or box get overs of some kind show up 25 times in those 17 workouts.
In 24 additional workouts when he has finished 2nd or 3rd, those same monostructural movements, plus skiing and sleds, show up 29 times.
Of those 41 workouts:
- Handstand walking appears 8 times
- Rope climbs and lunging appear 5 times each
- Wall balls, ghd sit ups, chest to bar pull ups, and muscle ups each appear at least 3 times
Weaknesses: 1 Rep max testing, handstand push up variations
His worst finishes this year have been on:
- 1 Rep Max Jerk at WFP 1 (20th out of 30)
- 1 Rep Max Clean at WFP 2 (18th out of 30)
- 1 Rep Max Back Squat at the CrossFit Games (18th out of 30)
- WFP Tour Stop 2, workout 2, which had 100 strict hspus and 100 kb front rack squats (24th out of 30)
Exposed at Rogue last year badly on Braveheart, with wall walk complex and heavy back squats (19th) and also on Hunting Haggis with the log muscle ups (20th) and Gondola with the horizontal peg board 917th)… but expect him to improve on the log and horizontal peg board if those shows up this time around.
Jay Crouch
Rogue Status: Third appearance (9th 2023, 6th 2024)
Expectations: The only finish Jay Crouch has outside of the top 10 in ANY competition he’s competed in since 2023 Quarterfinals online is at 12th place finish at the 2024 CrossFit Games. During that time he has one win (2023 Oceania Semifinals).
2025 Season: Jay has been excellent online (7th in the Open, 2nd in online Semis), and wildly consistent in live competition with a 7th, 6th, and 6th at the WFP 1, the CrossFit Games, and WFP respectively this year. Add in a second place to Ricky Garard at Torian Pro and it’s been nothing but strong performances from Crouch in 2025.
Strengths: Undoubtedly, getting upside down is Crouch’s best chane to win a workout. The most impressive workout win of his career was the Albany Grip Test at the Games this past summer which included Running, Deadlifts, and Handstand walking. Of his 8 career workout wins, 5 of them have had either handstand pushups or handstand walking.
While Crouch doesn’t have a ton of workout wins, he has 21 seconds and 18 third place finishes on individual workouts. Of those 47 top 3 finishes:
- Handstand work and upper body pulling showed up 19 and 17 times
- Squatting showed up 14 times
- Running, clean (and jerks), and toes to bar/ghd sit ups, at least 10 times each
- Double unders, snatching, thrusters, carries, lunges and deadlifts were also present between 4 and 6 times each
There really isn’t much Jay is good at it, he just has less wins than most of the other top guys.
Weaknesses: Heavy weightlifting implements
His worst finishes this year have been on:
- WFP Tour Stop 1, workout 5 with rope climbs and yoke carries (19th out of 30)
- WFP Tour Stop 1, max jerk (15th)
- WFP Tour Stop 2, max clean (21st)
Jayson Hopper
Rogue Status: Fifth appearance (7th 2021, 2022, 2023, 3rd 2024)
Expectations: Jayson has to be considered one of the favorites at Rogue this year, if not to win, at least for the podium.
2025 Season: Jayson has had a very strong year across the board, but it is undoubtedly highlighted by winning the 2025 CrossFit Games, claiming the title of Fittest on Earth, and fulfilling what was likely the biggest goal of the year.
He backed that win up with an underwhelming 8th place at WFP 2 (still a respectable finish), and quite frankly, in a field of men this strong and deep, it was almost expected. It’s difficult to get the body, mind, and emotions back up for the fight in such short order when you were the only one in that top group who accomplished the goal of winning at the Games.
More time has passed since then, Jayson is a new Rogue athlete, and he loves this competition; he’s very dangerous here.
Strengths: Machine work, cycling of nearly any and all weightlifting implements. Secondarily he’s got some sneaky gymnastics strengths including strict deficit handstand push ups, toes to bar, rope climbs, and peg boards
Of his 20 career event wins:
- Weightlifting cycling shows up 15 times
- Machine work shows up 12 times
- The combination of the two show up 9 times
Expanding to include his 11 second place workout and 7 third place workout finishes we have 38 workouts and a few more noticeable gymnastics movements appear:
- Upper body pulling: Rope climbs (5), pegboards (2), chest to bar (2), ring muscle up(1)
- Deficit handstands push up variations (5), handstand walking (3)
- Toes to bar (4)
- Burpee get over objects (3)
Weaknesses: Pretty interesting for Jayson actually, many of his worst performances this season have also come in workouts which have movements he’s not always bad at:
- WFP Tour Stop 2, workout 6 with muscles up, snatches, and clean and jerks
- WFP Tour Stop 2, workout 2 with 20 rope climbs, 100 strict handstand pushups and 50 burpee box jumps overs (maybe the 100 kb front squats were bad enough to offset all three of those strengths, or the volume of hspus was too dense)
- Throttle up at the Games with skiing, chest to bars, and burpee box jump overs
- Online Semis workout 1 with ring muscle ups, back squatting, and handstand walking
Jeff Adler
Rogue Status: Fifth appearance (3rd 2021 and 2022, 2nd 2023, 1st 2024)
Expectations: He’s the most impressive and dominant male in the history of the Rogue Invitational. Four appearances, four podiums, and the win in 2024 (one of only four men to have ever won this competition joining Fraser (2019), Vellner (2020 and 2023) and Justin Medeiros (2021 and 2022).
2025 Season: After a great start to the season online (3rd in the Open, 1st in the online Semi), a pair of underwhelming live competition finishes at WFP 1 (4th, but the way he finished the last workout was tough), and the CrossFit Games (8th), he backed off his competition schedule (not participating in WFP 2 or the TYR Cup at WZA So Cal). From where I’m sitting, he did this with the intention of preparing for Rogue.
Historically Adler does not compete a lot. He has made his career out of intense and focused preparation for 1 or 2 competitions each year, the Games and Rogue. The extra competition volume appears to have flared up a back thing for him that could explain those finishes. Others might say that the younger guys in the field have closed the gap. Rogue is going to help answer that. If he missed the podium I’ll give more credence to that narrative, but not until then.
Strengths: He’s so balanced, and his career finishes on workouts within the top 10 shows it:
| Workout Finish | Number of Times |
| 1 | 23 |
| 2 | 14 |
| 3 | 17 |
| 4 | 21 |
| 5 | 18 |
| 6 | 15 |
| 7 | 10 |
| 8 | 13 |
| 9 | 11 |
Now, if we want to be more focused, let’s look at the 54 top three workouts for some patterns:
- Running 19 times
- Squatting 17 times
- Clean (and jerks) 16 times
- Muscle ups or Rope climbs 20 times
- Snatching 10 times
- Burpees, sandbag movements, double unders, and handstand variations also showed up at least 5 times each
Weaknesses: Not Many, let’s look at his finishes outside of the top 10 in his Rogue career.
- 11th the Duel III (2023)
- 12th Ski Bar (2022)
- 11th DT with a Spin (2022)
- 11th The Duel II (2022)
- 1tth Texas Oak (2022)
- 12th Go Ruck (2021)
The Duel workouts are a non-factor to me, these are incredibly small margins, and he’s doing well considering he’s not a fast twitch muscle guy by nature.
Ski Bar and Texas Oak are not things I’m concerned about either. He’s improved on the log muscle up workout each year (12th, 8th, 3rd) and an unusual odd object left for a middle sized guy in the field, a middle finish is fine.
Since that 2022 year he’s specifically addressed power output on machines at the start of workouts being a hindrance.
Since the 12th place Go Ruck running workout he’s elevated to one of, if not the top, runner in the field.
Justin Medeiros
Rogue Status: Fourth appearance (1st 2021 and 2022, 8th 2024)
Expectations: Two time champ at Rogue, and even though we’re only three years removed from the first one, a lot has changed since then. Medeiros has re-established himself as a top ten guy at almost any competition, but his last podium was the 2024 West Coast Semis, and it feels pretty unlikely that he ends that streak at Rogue this year.
2025 Season: A strong online season (11th in the Open, 8th in the online Semis), and a respectable set of live competition results to go with it: 6th at WFP 1, 7th at the CrossFit Games, then a small regression to 12th at WFP 2.
It’s notable that following that result he went on The Boys Interrupted podcast and started speaking a little more openly about how this year has been fun, but the volume of high level competitions is adding up.
Strengths: His biggest strengths are probably lunging, ghd sit ups, squatting, rope climbs, and jumping. But he’s plenty proficient and all aspects of olympic lifting, deadlifting, sandbag movements, rowing, running, muscle ups, chest to bar pull ups, and thrusters too,
For someone who won two CrossFit Games back to back while only winning 1 workout, he has an impressive number of career workout wins at 22; lunging, ghds, squatting, rope climbs, and jumping each show up between 5 and 8 times amongst those.
He also has 24 seconds and 24 thirds to go with those, making 70 total workouts where he’s finished top 3 in his career. The most frequent movements to appear across those 70 workouts are:
- Squatting 27 times
- Handstand movements 17 times
- Lunging 14 times
- Jumping 13 times
- Rope climbs 11 times
Weaknesses: Biking, other than that, hard to pinpoint. For Justin it seems to be more about how he’s physically feeling and able to demand intensity of himself, rather than movements that always hold him back.
His worst finishes this year have been on:
- Going Dark at the CrossFit Games with echo bike, yoke carry and deficit hspus (23rd)
- WFP Tour Stop 2, workout 6 with muscle ups, snatching, and clean and jerks (19th)
- WFP Tour Stop 2, workout 5 with biking, handstand walking, and double unders (19th)
- WFP Tour Stop 2, workout 1, 2 mile run (16th)
Pat Vellner
Rogue Status: Seventh appearance (2nd 2019 and 2021, 1st 2020 online and 2023, 4th 2022, 9th 2024)
Expectations: Vellner has never missed Rogue. Last year he was extremely ill during the competition and still managed a top 10; prior to that always 4th or better with two wins. It feels like Vellner should be a top five threat at Rogue, especially given what we’ve seen from him recently at WFP Tour Stop 2 and WZA So Cal. He is not done yet!
2025 Season: Vellner has less competitions than a lot of the other guys in the field due to his decision to forgo the Games season in 2025. That is a decision which surely was not made lightly as he gave up the chance at a 10th consecutive qualification, something rarely seen.
The three appearances he has had have been very up and down:
- 2nd WZA in Miami
- 23rd WFP Tour Stop 1
- 3rd WFP Tour Stop 2
Strengths: Toes to bar, deadlifts, burpees, muscle ups, squatting, and jumping
He’s been competing so long that his number of top finishes is very high (36 workouts wins, 33 seconds, 28 thirds, 25 fourths, 20 fifths… and over 70 additional top ten workout finishes). So, looking at the last three years only he’s had 25 top 3 finishes, here are the movements that show up the most:
- Squatting movements (10 times)
- Jumping movement (7 times)
- Toes to bar, biking, deadlifts, burpees, and muscle ups (6 each)
- There are 11 other movements with multiple appearances… so yeah, lots of varieties of workouts where he filters towards the top.
Weaknesses: His overhead position is pretty notably his biggest weakness. Swimming is also up there, but it shows up so infrequently compared to the overhead stuff that it’s not nearly as relevant, especially at Rogue where we never expect to see the athletes swim.
His worst finishes this year all came at WFP Tour Stop 1:
- WFP Tour Stop 1, workout 6, with the double dumbbell overhead walking lunge finisher, probably his worst overall movement (28th out of 30)
- WFP Tour Stop 1, workout 2 (22nd)
- WFP Tour Stop 1, workouts 3 and 5 (20th on both)
If you ask me, he just wasn’t in good enough shape to compete at this competition. With the exception of the double dumbbell overhead walking lunge, he should not have done that poorly on any of those workouts.
Ricky Garard
Rogue Status: Fourth appearance (10th 2022, 5th 2023, 4th 2024)
Expectations: He’s been steadily improving at Rogue, the next step is to get onto the podium. It feels like that should happen, but there have always been a couple land mines at Rogue for Ricky, he’ll need to avoid those if he wants the podium, the field is too good to have them.
2025 Season: Ricky has had as busy of a year as anyone: 4th at WZA, 8th in the Open, 7th online Semis, 11th WFP 1, 1st Torian Pro, 2nd CrossFit Games, 5th WFP 2, and WZA So Cal with team world…. And despite all of that, he’s been looking good at every single come he wasn’t sick (WFP 1) during.
Strengths: Running, muscle ups, shoulder to overhead, squatting
Ricky has some serious homerun potential and has racked up 22 workout 2ins, 19 seconds, and 17 thirds in a someone sporadic career. To put it simply, there are a few movements which Ricky just absolutely loves to see:
- Running 17 times
- Muscle ups 15 times
- Squatting and shoulder to overhead 13 times each
Next most common were biking, rope climbs, carries, snatching, lunging, jumping, rowing, toes to bar, and chest to bar with at least four each. Swimming would also be here, but barely ever shows up.
Weaknesses: Specifically when it comes to Rogue:unconventional horizontal gymnastics traversing movements and deficit or strict handstand pushups have been a major kryptonite for Garard.
Problems at Rogue:
- 2022: 18th on Back Attack (back squats), 17th on Snatch and Press (parallette hspus)
- 2023: 18th on The Circus (killer cage), 13th on Max Deadlift
- 2024: 13th on Gondola (horizontal pegboard), 11th on Braveheart (backsquat / wall walk complex)
Roman Khrennikov
Rogue Status: Third appearance (5th 2022, 3rd 2023)
Expectations: There was a noticeable Roman sized hole in the men’ s field at Rogue last year after an impressive third place finish the year prior. Knowing he can podium at this competition, and coming off the biggest win of his career at WFP 2, a return to the podium seems quite possible.
2025 Season: Roman opened with a solid 15th in the Open, and then took two shots at live qualifiers (3rd Mayhem Classic to Hatfield and Mertens; 1st Woodland Fest) to get to the Games where he placed 9th. His other comps have been WFP 1 when he took 8th, and WFP 2, which he won. He also competed at WZA So Cal with team world, but did not contribute any points to the team.
Strengths: Running, Clean and jerks, biking, wall balls and thrusters
Roman has a staggering 50 career workout wins, 31 second place finishes, and 26 third place finishes. That’s 107 total workouts finishing in the top 3… however, many of those are from comps prior to when he could get to the US to compete.
Beginning with the 2022 Games, Roman still has 18 workout wins, 18 second place workouts, and 12 third place workout finishes. Out of those 48, the movements that show up the most are:
- Clean and jerks 16 times
- Squatting and running 14 times each
- Bikini 10 times
Several other movements showed up five or more times: rowing, rope climbs, toes to bar, muscle ups, jumping, and carrying objects.
Weaknesses: Handstand walking and fast twitch muscle workouts, but he seems to be more of a momentum guy, when he’s on he’s good at almost everything, when he’s slightly off he can bomb a variety of workouts. He also has a threshold for high volume localized muscular fatiguing workouts (i.e. very high density of shoulder work or light weight squats etc).
His worst finishes this year have been on:
- Running Isabel at the Games (28th out of 30)
- WFP Tour Stop 1, workout 2 with sandbag cleans, ghd sit ups, and handstand walking (27th out of 30)
- Albany Grip Test (run, deadlift, hs walking) and Throttle Up (skim chest to bar, burpee box jump overs) at the Games (15th on both)
- WFP Tour stop 2, workout 4A, 1 Rep Max Clean (13th)
Roman’s worst Rogue finishes:
- 17th place – The Goblet 2022 (ring muscle ups, hill running, goblet squats)
- 15th place – The Duel II 2022 (legless rope climb, overhead squat, sandbag carry)
- 15th place – 10th Inning 2023 (ring muscle up, handstand push ups, power snatch)
- 14th place – Big Cat 2023 (box jumps, handstand walking, hill run)
- 13th place – The Duel III 2023 (Log Over/Under, sandbag into “teeter”)
- 12th place – Snatch and Press 2022 (alt db snatch and parallette hspus)
What do you think?
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