Photo Credit: Rafael Paredes
It’s been a couple of weeks since the conclusion of the 2023 NOBULL CrossFit Games. Meaning it’s as good a time as ever to look back at Games performance through the lens of performance at Semifinals.
Brian presented this question back in mid-June: Is Winning Semifinals a Good Predictor for the Games? Today, we dive deep into this question with specific focus on the results from this year’s Games.
The Semifinals Winners
In Brian’s original article, he stated that “the safe bets are that the winners of the North American and European Semifinals should be at worst in the top 15 at the Games this year, and more likely than not, within the top-ten.”
|2023 Semifinals Winners|
|Competition||Athlete||Games Rank||Games Rank Against Semis Field|
|Africa||Michelle Basnett||37th||1st of 1|
|Asia||Seher Kaya||23rd||1st of 2|
|Arthur Semenov||39th||2nd of 2|
|Europe||Gabriela Migała||4th||2nd of 11|
|Lazar Đukić||9th||2nd of 10|
|North America East||Emma Cary||8th||3rd of 11|
|Jeffrey Adler||1st||1st of 12|
|North America West||Alex Gazan||5th||2nd of 10|
|Patrick Vellner||2nd||1st of 9|
|Oceania||Ellie Turner||31st||2nd of 3|
|Jay Crouch||8th||1st of 3|
|South America||Victoria Campos||38th||2nd of 2|
|Kaique Cerveny||37th||2nd of 2|
Brian went six for six with all of the winners being within the top ten. Of the remaining Semifinals winners, Oceania’s Jay Crouch was the only additional top-ten Games finisher.
Additionally, five of the semifinals winners were also the top finisher at the Games against their respective semifinal field. The Semifinals winner who placed lowest at the Games against their respective semifinal field was 8th Fittest Woman on Earth Emma Cary who was beaten by Emma Lawson (4th at Semis, 2nd at Games) and Alexis Raptis (5th at Semis, 6th at Games).
The Semifinals Top Two
Brian also stated that “we can project 4 or 5 of the top 6 (top 2 at each) finishers in North America and Europe to be in the top-ten on both the men’s and women’s side.”
|Competition||Top 2 Men||Games Finish||Top 2 Women||Games Finish|
|North America East||Jeffrey Adler||1st||Emma Cary||8th|
|Jayson Hopper||31st||Danielle Brandon||9th|
|North America West||Patrick Vellner||2nd||Alex Gazan||5th|
|Brent Fikowski||4th||Katrin Davidsdottir||7th|
|Europe||Lazar Đukić||9th||Gabriela Migała||4th|
|Henrik Haapalainen||24th||Annie Thorisdottir||13th|
Brian was correct again with four of the top six men and five of the top six women placing within the top-ten at the Games.
So Is Winning Semifinals a Good Predictor for the Games?
The short answer is yes. It’s not a perfect correlation, but it’s high. A high finish at the larger semifinals leads to a high finish at the Games. However, winning your Semifinal doesn’t mean you will be the best Games finisher from your Semifinal. So while some top athletes may not hold Semifinals in the same regard as the Games, the results from the last three years show that athletes should be focusing on as high of a Semifinals finish as they can get.