Image Credit: Athlete’s Eye Photography
The roster of all signed pros for the inaugural World Fitness Project season has been out for just over a month now. It consists of 20 male and 20 female athletes, at least 80% of which are in the top-20 worldwide based on any ranking metric you want to go by.
With three opportunities to compete throughout this year, and a host of challengers clamoring for their right to do so as well via the qualifiers, it’s going to be quite a competitive season.
These articles (this one for the men, and a separate one for the women) are my best effort to project rankings for the signed athletes (with the understanding of course that there will be qualifiers who outperform some of them too).
Factors in Play
For the sake of not repeating some these many times throughout the individual athlete write ups, there are a few consistent things I’ve applied to the rankings:
- Number of competitions each athlete appears to be doing this year
- Their age relative to the number of competitions they’re choosing to do
- Where they appear to be prioritizing their mental/emotional focus this year
- Recent competition performances, or lack there of in some cases
Therefore, in some instances this is not necessarily a reflection of who I think is fittest amongst them. Rather, it is a projection of how well I expect them to do in the three WFP events and ultimately their potential to earn a pro card for the WFP season in 2026.
The Favorite
- Jeff Adler: To me, this is as easy a pick as there is on this list. No one on this list has beaten him in a live competition in quite some time. He trains as smart as anyone, already has a leg up on them via his results, and has never run himself into the ground by competing too often. Nothing is guaranteed, but Adler is the favorite.
Podium Threats (there are a lot)
- Austin Hatfield: This kid is really good and getting better. He still hasn’t done too many competitions, and there are things we still haven’t seen him do everything that’s required to win, but it’s coming, the question is no longer if, but when.
- Patrick Vellner: I’m starting to think he will be fighting for podiums forever. Since he made the Games in 2016 only injury, illness, or bad ideas from competition organizers have kept him out of podium conversations. He’s focusing on this, and he will be relevant for the podium fight.
4-6 Dallin Pepper, Jayson Hopper, James Sprague: I can’t see much between these three guys right now, and I also am not sure how they will hold up with the volume of important and relevant competitions they are planning to do this year. It’s almost one meaningful competition per month, and that recipe has yet to work for anyone who wants to optimize their performance. They are good enough that they will still do well, but I’m not sure they’ll have enough to win just due to sheer wear and tear on the body alone.
7-8 Ricky Garard and Jay Crouch: Same could be said for these two. Add in the brutality of travel if they are using Australia as a home base and have to come to the United States and/or Europe five to six times this year… forget it. No chance to see them at their best if that’s the case. And in the case of both men, I still don’t actually think we’ve seen their true top end potential yet. Maybe one day.
9. Roman Khrennikov: Easily could be much higher on this list, but having not seen anything from him following the injury during last season, it’s difficult to put him ahead of these other guys. Additionally, I’m not entirely sure of his plans in terms of volume of competition, but given he’s trying to return from injury, it seems that less would be more- time will tell what he decides to prioritize.
Looking for Opportunity
A lot of the guys in the group above are at risk of not being at their best for the WFP season due to excessive competition and travel. These next six guys are most likely to capitalize on it.
10. Justin Medieros: I’m in the camp who would love to see Medeiros back contending for podiums and championships, but that simply hasn’t been the case recently. The field is constantly improving and evolving, and at the moment, as good as he once was, he’s just a mid pack guy amongst the best in the world.
11. Jonne Koski: Talk about an up and down 12 months: wins the Open and Quarterfinals, doesn’t qualify at Semis and subsequently misses out on only his second CrossFit Games since 2014 (2018 being the other), has a strong finish at Rogue (10th) and WZA (5th). I’m going to ignore the Semifinal blip- Koski is still good and relevant in this field.
12. Luka Dukic: The biggest plus Luka has going for him is knowing what he’s training for. We saw a near optimal version of this in Dubai, whereas we did not in Miami. It seems he has refocused and set his sights on these three competitions, and I expect him to be at his best for them.
13. Gui Malheiros: The two times he’s competed at Rogue he’s been 7th or better. The three times he’s competed at WZA he’s been 11th or better. The last two times he’s competed at the Games he’s been 10th or better… but man, there just isn’t space up there.
14. Jelle Hoste: Although we didn’t get to watch it, the performances from Hoste at the Picsil Showdown against a few formidable men are more along the lines of what we’re accustomed to seeing. The only man who beat him there (Aniol Ekai) will likely be in this field eventually through the qualifiers, and will slot in with this group or even slightly above.
15. Sam Kwant: He actually beat about half the guys listed ahead of him on this list at the Games, for whatever that is worth. Followed it up with a 14th at Rogue though. Kwant has always had potential, and also always had inconsistent results. Therefore, over three events this year, I can’t justify anything in the top half for him against this field.
Out for Vengeance
It is somewhat painful to rank men who are so fit, talented, committed, and hard working this low- but that’s how it goes when you have a field this good. And all competitors know that someone will be first, and someone will be last. As always, I expect one or two of these guys to prove me wrong in an empathic way, but another one, two, or more of them won’t earn the pro card at all next year.
16. Noah Ohlsen: One of the trickier athletes to know what to do with. He’s at a point in his life and career where he can do almost anything it seems, and clearly he’s still super fit. But to beat these guys, who have the laser focus on one thing that he used to, is a different ask. Noah will entertain for sure, but I think it will be more of a battle to get a card again next season than to be in the hunt for the bigger money.
17. Travis Mayer: He basically lives for proving me wrong on these things, and most of the time throughout his career he has. His two most relevant competitions as an individual over the last couple years are hard to correlate to this season though. 12th at the Games last August, and 6th at Rogue in 2023.
18. Chandler Smith: The regression at Rogue the past two years is the primary reason I have Smith this low. However, he seems to be in the camp that is minimizing competitions this year rather than trying to do everything, and that could be a huge asset towards a much better eventual finish that this.
19. Björgvin Karl Gudmundsson: It’s been a consistent regression at both the Games and Rogue since 2021. As great as he was for as long as he was great, I just don’t see a comeback coming for the legendary BKG.
20. Victor Hoffer: The biggest concern for Hoffer is injury. And against a field like this, with an unknown in that column, you start at the bottom and work your way up.
What do you think?
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